March 1 Stocks were nearly exactly what traders expected them to be. Corn Stocks were down 201 million bushels, soybean stocks were 65 million bushels larger than last year, and wheat stocks were 148 million bushels larger than last year.
With no surprise in Stocks, traders are forced to focus on the Prospective Plantings report (and all the outside market news). Corn acres were above the average trade estimate at 95.326 million acres. Soybean acres were smaller than the average trade estimate at 83.495 million acres. Wheat acres were slightly larger than the average trade estimate at 45.350 million acres.
That tells us our current Buy Signals heading into the weather risk period are something livestock feeders need to pay attention to. Those who like to buy courage calls to be able to put hedges on during a rally should be getting those in place.
Although we don?t know what the outside news will be in the next 60 days, the greatest risk of growing a crop will take place in that time period. Normally weather will give us a worry or two and a couple of Sell Signals. We are buyers now; we will be sellers then. Beans are already trading above the 20-day moving average which will likely make funds be buyers, corn will assault that green line shortly.
Source: USDA, Reuters