The USDA released six separate reports today at 11 am central time. You can see our table summarizing the key data below. We will digest this information today and over the long weekend to provide a fuller summary in our next letter on Tuesday next week (Monday is the MLK holiday).
Here are some quick bullet point highlights:
2023 US Production increased. US carryout increased.
In the annual Crop Production report, the USDA updated their final US 2023 crop estimates for corn and soybeans. While the USDA lowered their acreage totals for US corn and beans, they increased their yield estimates for both, which led to larger production totals and larger carryout estimates.
US 2023 Corn yield increased from 174.9 to 177.3 bpa.
US 2023 Corn production increased from 15.234 to 15.342 billion bushels.
US 2023 Soybean yield increased from 49.9 to 50.6 bpa.
US 2023 Soybean production increased from 4.129 to 4.165 billion bushels.
US carryout increased for corn (+31 million bu) and beans (+35 million bu) but was lowered slightly for wheat (-11 million bu).
From the US Supply & Demand tables:
Corn
Feed up 25 million bushels
Ethanol up 50 million bushels
Exports unchanged
Soybeans and Wheat
Both saw minimal changes outside of the production increase.
Exports unchanged. Soybean crushing unchanged.
World carryout increased
World carryout increased for corn (+10 million tons), beans (+390k tons), and wheat (1.83 million tons).
Quarterly Grain Stocks
The December 1st US grain stocks for corn, beans, and wheat were all larger than trade expectations. Corn was up 13% from last year, beans were down 1% from last year, and wheat was up 8% from last year.
Winter Wheat Seedings
US 2024 winter wheat seeded area were down 6% compared to 2023. The totals for all classes were below the average trade estimates. However, world wheat output and supply both increased according to the WASDE report.
South American production
The USDA cut their Brazilian production estimates less than trade expected. The USDA is taking a cautious approach to assessing the Brazilian crops. But they did increase their Argentine soybean production estimate mare than expected, raising it 2 million tons to 50.0 million tons. They left their Argentine corn production estimate unchanged.
Prices lower after the reports
Overall, US and world carryout increased in today?s reports. There were no bullish surprises. Forty-five minutes after the reports were dropped, all our crop markets are trading sharply lower than they were prior to the reports. Buy Signals continue. Chicago and KC wheat are likely to join everything else in Buy Signals when trading resumes next week.
Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters