The USDA stowed away their bag of surprises this month. There were only minor changes made across three major markets, with all the adjustments falling within the middle of the range of trade estimates.
Corn
The 2025-26 corn balance sheet saw a 100 million bushel increase to exports, which fell straight to the bottom line, increasing carryout 100 million bushels to a still ample 2.1 billion bushels. The global balance sheet reflected the same, with few other adjustments.
Soybeans
The US balance sheet was left unchanged this month. The USDA chose to punt on making changes to exports or crush this month. That left US soybean carryout unchanged at 350 million bushels.
The USDA did finally increase their Brazil soybean production estimate to 180 million tons, which is still short of recent private and Brazilian government estimates.
Wheat
US domestic wheat use was lowered five million bushels, which increased carryout the same amount to 931 million bushels. Global carryout changed by less than 1 million tons.
Overall, it was a sleeper of a report. Expect our crop markets to continue to chop along in the same familiar range they’ve been trading in recently. There is no new fundamental news to change the current trading ranges.
Source: USDA, Reuters