The December WASDE report was a sleeper, with few adjustments made from the November numbers. US corn exports were increased by 125 million bushels, which was not a surprise given the record pace of corn sales so far this marketing year. No other changes were made to the US corn balance sheet. Thus the 125 million bushel increase in demand fell to the bottom line and reduced ending stocks by the same amount, lowering it to 2.029 billion bushels. Still an ample amount.
The USDA made no changes to their US soybean and wheat balance sheets, leaving them the same as a month ago. There were thoughts the USDA could lower US soybean exports due to the lack of Chinese buying, but obviously the USDA instead chose to kick the can down the road until January.
The USDA also left their South American production estimates unchanged.
The largest changes in global ending stocks were seen in wheat, where world production totals increased by 7.5 million tons. However, usage increased 4 million tons, offsetting over half of the production increase. Global corn ending stocks were down -2 million tons, while global soybean carryout was largely unchanged. Twenty minutes after the reports, markets were trading pretty much right where they were ahead of the reports. This leaves us waiting for more Chinese demand and watching South American weather until the January USDA reports are released.
Source: USDA, Reuters