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News and USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments, as well as featured article by Roach Ag Daily Grain Plan editors and writers.

John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

August 2023 USDA Supply & Demand

USDA Report Summary

USDA delivers positive corn and bean numbers in Friday’s reports to go along with Roach Ag Buy Signals

The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is 2.4 bushels lower than last month’s projection. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that among the major producing States, yields are forecast above a year ago in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota. Yields in Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri are forecast below a year ago.

Corn production for 2023-24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 209 million from the July projection, but if realized, would still be the second highest production on record behind 2016-17.

The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2023-24 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 2% from last year.

The UDSA forecast soybean exports would be down 25 million bushels. They left crush unchanged, pegging ending stocks at 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month and 22 million below the average trade estimate.

The USDA data was not enough to push prices outside (during the first 15 minutes of post-report trade) of the trading range that they have been in since the first of August.

The Brazilian corn crop continues to grow. The USDA increased their estimate by 2 million tons to 135.0 million tons, well above the latest CONAB estimate of 130.0 million tons. 

US wheat production numbers were little changed from July and wheat prices tested recent lows after the USDA numbers were released.

Source: USDA, Bloomberg

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