Projections for U.S. corn and soybean production declined slightly from the previous month in the USDA Crop Production report released on Friday.
Modest reductions in harvested acres offset steady yield estimates and trimmed the forecast modestly but totals still met analyst expectations and were considered unsurprising overall.
Some analysts suspected the USDA was holding off on making significant increases until the August report. In addition, the market likely got a jump on Friday?s report from the stocks and acreage reports released at the end of June.
Corn production was estimated at 15.705 billion bushels (bbu), down from the June forecast of 15.820 bbu. Analysts had anticipated the decline; the June figure was still below the median estimate but within the range of estimates. The carryout for 2024-25 corn fell to 1.340 bbu from 1.365 bbu and was lower than expected.
Brazil?s corn production for 2024-25 was lowered to 132 million metric tons (MT) from 132.4 million MT in June and was unchanged for 2025-26 at 131 million MT.
This year?s soybean production in the United States was down slightly from the June projection at 4.335 bbu and in line with expectations. Yields held steady as did the 2024-25 U.S. carryout at 0.350 bbu.
Brazil?s estimated soybean production remained at 169.00 million MT after analysts anticipated a slight increase to 169.25 million MT.
Wheat production estimates were lowered in multiple categories, including winter wheat at 1.35 bbu, down 3% from the June forecast but only 1% lower than last year. The yield forecast, as of July 1, was 0.5% higher than in June at 54.2 bushels per acre (bpa) and 2.5 bushels higher than last year.
Production of hard red winter wheat was down 4% from June and durum off less than 1%. Spring wheat was projected at 7% lower than last year at 504 million bushels with a slight decline in yields to 51.7 bpa.
Source: USDA, Reuters