The top line US yield numbers were even larger increases than trade expected. The US corn yield came in at 188.8 bpa, which exceeded last week?s controversial StoneX estimate, and came in above even the largest trade estimate. This was well above last year?s record yield of 179.3 bpa. The US soybean yield estimate was 53.6 bpa, which put it equal to the highest trade estimate.
The harvested acreage estimates increased for corn but decreased for soybeans, which increased the size of the US corn production by more than 1 billion bushels. A smaller soybean acreage estimate offset the larger yield, leaving US soybean production 43 million bushels smaller than last month.
Thus, the bottom line is that the US corn crop is expected to be a massive record, while the soybean production total was tempered following today?s supply demand update.
There were only minimal changes to US wheat production from last month.
Soybean prices are sharply higher following the reports. November beans cleared up through the green line 20-day moving average with strong power. The market is telling us we have run out of sellers and reignited the buyer. Spec funds were heavily short soybeans, and the trend has now flipped upward. The funds always follow the trend, and today they are on the wrong side.
This is a time to pay attention to the market. Be prepared for a Soybean Sell Signal.
Source: USDA, Reuters