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↓ Nov'24 |12.80 1/4 |-2 1/4
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↓ Jul '24 | 6.44 3/4 | -7 1/4
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST. |
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Sell Signals • None Buy Signals
• Corn - Day 1 • Soybeans- Day 1
• Meal - Day 2 |
During the past 12 months
• Corn had 9 Buy Signals lasting 9, 4, 3, 13, 8, 1, 10, 13, and 1 days. • Soybeans had 6 Buy Signals lasting 9, 2, 7, 8, 13, and 10 days. • Meal had 6 Buy Signals lasting 8, 6, 7, 12, 10, and 12 days. |
Corn, soybeans, and meal are all in Buy Signals today
Prices across the soybean complex and for corn all fell down below the green line 20-day moving average last week and continued to slide lower overnight. This decline pulled corn and soybeans into a Buy Signal today, joining meal, which triggered its Buy Signal on Friday.
Buy Signals provide the opportunity for livestock producers to purchase feed and for grain producers to take re-ownership of recently sold bushels.
On this round of Buy Signals, the Seasonality box is checked for corn and beans, as September marks the beginning of harvest and historically lower price levels. In addition, the Money Flow box is checked for corn due to the historically large net short positions of the spec funds. Last week, the funds sold nearly -48,000 contracts of corn, increasing their net short positions to -134,909 contracts, which is their largest net short corn position since August 2020. Their biggest short position in over three years is exerting a heavy downward drag on the corn market. Spec funds are trend followers. The current trend is downward for corn. The funds were not just sellers of corn last week, they were net sellers across the board, also increasing their short positions in wheat and reducing the size of their net long positions in soybeans, meal and soybean oil.
The NOPA monthly US soybean crush total for August came in at 161.5 million bushels, which was more than 6 million bushels below the average trade estimate and the smallest in nearly a year. The smaller than expected crush was blamed on maintenance shutdowns at several plants. Soybean oil stocks fell to their lowest level in over 5 years. Wheat prices unable to break above the 20-day resistance
Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat saw sharper price increases last week and led the way for wheat back to the green line 20-day moving average. Chicago wheat was slower but made it back up to the green line on Friday. Overnight, all three wheat markets were lower and only Minneapolis wheat has been able to (barely) maintain a price above its 20-day average.
Like corn, the spec funds’ net short positions (across all three wheat classes) are exerting a downward pull upon prices. Until wheat (and corn) prices can close above the green line a couple days in a row, the spec funds will not begin liquidating their shorts. Last week the EU agreed to let a ban on Ukrainian grain exports into the neighboring five EU member countries expire. However, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia implemented their own restrictions over the weekend, causing tension within the EU. Poland and Slovakia clarified the ban applies to sales but not grain in transit through their countries. |
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Outside markets Equities: The stock markets closed modestly lower on Friday with most exchanges giving up their more-sizable gains from Thursday, but not much more. All eyes were on Arm Holdings last week as it made its debut in a closely watched IPO on Nasdaq at around $51. The British chip designer was trading around $67 heading into Friday’s close.
The week ended with the auto workers’ strike unfolding and the likelihood of spillover eventually hitting parts makers and other supporting companies. The new week begins with Wall Street waiting for Tuesday’s Fed decision on interest rates. The consensus has been that rates will remain where they are for now but could tick higher later in the fall.
US Dollar: The U.S. dollar was lower on Friday following the preliminary release of a new survey showing a sharper slip in consumer confidence than analysts had expected. The dollar was still up for the week and Friday’s range was still hugging the 12-month high reached on Thursday.
Most international currencies were also higher on Friday, including the Euro, which bounced off a sharp decline seen Thursday after the European Central Bank moved interest rates up a notch. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index was seen falling to 67.7 points this month from 69.5 in August; analysts polled by Reuters were guessing around 69.1 points.
Treasuries: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note traded above 4.321% Friday, ending firmly above the range seen in a week of choppy trading. The full menu of yields closed unanimously higher on Friday. Positive news on factory output and retail sales came out of China Friday, but Reuters reported there was an offsetting decline in investment in the struggling property sector.
Reuters said Beijing was continuing to add new support to China’s currency and overall economy amid weak export demand for manufactured goods. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia was teaming up with a Chinese bank to put together an $11 billion 10-year unsecured loan with an interest rate 100 basis points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Livestock: Live cattle futures soared to highs for the year on Friday to cap a busy week that saw a high level of technical trading and rolling September futures into December. Both months were nearly a dollar higher at the end of the day with September above $186 and December in the $191s. Feeder cattle also charged to 12-month highs during the week on expectations of tight supply along with improved pasture conditions.
The hog market was also busy with rollovers between October and December. Friday saw October sticking to the $83 range after falling off $85 at midweek. The hog slaughter for the week was trailing the totals for the same period last week. Analysts said Monday’s trading could hinge on the pork-production totals for the week.
Energies: Crude finished the week in the $90s and at some of the highest levels in the year. Friday saw Brent crude hit $94 and matched highs last seen in November 2022. October WTI hit a 12-month high of $91.15 on Friday and finished the day solidly above $90. The week began with WTI modestly above $87.
Analysts saw improved economic news in China translating to higher demand for oil at a time when OPEC is holding the line on production and predicting long-term increase in worldwide demand. The softer dollar also helped firm up the price tag. October natural gas futures retreated Friday after being on the upswing most of the week.
Metals: The softer dollar helped gold finish last week on a solid upswing that kept prices comfortably above $1,900. Positive economic news from China also boosted gold while some analysts saw active short covering by investors at the end of the week adding support. The gold rally also seemed to add some support to silver futures. Platinum was also higher on the economic news out of China. Copper was lower on the day Friday but still finished the week higher. |
Regional Basis Summary
Click here for the Regional Basis Summary. |
Commitments of Traders
Spec funds were net sellers of -110,113 contracts across all the crop markets last week (through Tuesday September 12). The selling took place across each of the crop markets that we follow. It is not often that the funds are sellers across the board. The largest action was in the corn market where the funds increased their net short positions to -134,909 contracts which is their largest net short position in over three years (August 2020). The funds also remained net short all three wheat classes, while they trimmed their net long positions across the soybean complex. |
Commercial activity was more subdued than the spec funds, as they removed just over 32,000 contracts of net shorts across all the crop markets. The changes were balanced and not lopsided towards corn as seen in the spec fund weekly changes. |
Plant shutdowns push NOPA soybean crush totals lower The NOPA monthly soybean crush fell sharply in August and finished barely above the low end of analyst predictions.
The final total of 161.5 million bushels (mbu) was at the bottom of a wide range of projections stretching from 161.3 mbu up to 171.0 mbu; the average of the estimates was 167.8 mbu. The total was well below the July total of 173.3 mbu and the August 2022 total of 165.5 mbu. The total crush for the period August 2022 through September 2023 of 2,080 mbu was actually 6 million mbu over the previous year but also around 10 mbu below the USDA’s estimate for the year. The reductions were reportedly the result of maintenance downtime at several crush plants.
NOPA also reported soybean oil stocks in August were decidedly lower than July at 1,250 million pounds, below analyst estimates and the lowest level for August since 2014.
Production of soybean meal slowed to 3.847 million short tons in August from 4.103 million short tons in July and 3,918 million short tons in August 2022. |
StoneX yield reports Illinois
Greene County, IL- Corn, Field #1 242 bpa, Field #2 245 bpa.; Soybeans 57 acres of 2.8 soybeans, 80.3-bpa. Dry at 54# TW. lots of meal & low oil content.
Moultrie County IL – Soybeans, 100 acres, 79.8 bu/acre across scale at the elevator. Better than expected. Monmouth IL, - Corn, 80 acres, 242 bpa. aph 225 Arcola, IL going 250-260 bpa. Producer pleased. Piatt county IL. 2 fields 224 and 236 bpa Farmer is optimistic yields will jump as he keeps going. Moisture 22-24% and test weight 55-57# Coles County (east central) Soybeans, 100 acres 81 bpa Missouri Morgan Co, MO – Corn, 57 bu/ac on 80 acres. no rain until end of August. Indiana
Ft Wayne, IN corn yielding 230 Minnesota So MN Blue Earth County 197bpa LY 225 was expecting 185bpa South MN Delta overall farm average 225 bu/ac dry vs 5 yr Avg of 235 Nebraska Eastern Saunders County: dryland soybeans 60 bpa. Field planted a day later,10 miles South, 36 bpa Western Saunders County: dryland soybeans 30 bpa. Butler County: dryland corn 130 bpa. Same as last year. APH 185.
Butler County: irrigated corn 275 bpa. 17% moisture Iowa
Wright County, IA Corn 220 bpa dry. Not good dirt. Good dirt ground went 210 bpa but was corn on corn. Tennessee
50 ac irrigated soybeans 71 bu/ac at 14.5% moisture – never turned pivot on due to timely rains |
USDA Flash Sales From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice • 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year. |
U.S. – Last week's observed precipitation |
Source: NOAA There is little rain forecast today across the US. Aside from some light pop-up rain events, precipitation is primarily limited to the Northeast as the remnants of Hurricane Lee continue to bring heavy rain. Corn Belt temperatures are forecast to rise above normal this week and remain warm for the next two weeks. |
GFS Model - U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast |
European Model - U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast |
US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Brazil – Last week’s observed precipitation |
Argentina – Last week’s observed precipitation |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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