July 1, 2024

We are starting to receive calls from customers who have been offered reasonable prices for fall and spring nitrogen purchases. Our retail price averages take some time to incorporate these lower prices, so while we are not making recommendations officially if your local price is dramatically lower than our average it is likely a good opportunity to buy. Read below for price ideas. We should see a continued pullback in our retail fertilizer price averages throughout the summer.  If you have questions or want to discuss your fertilizer situation with us, give us a call at 800-622-7628.

All recommendations below are specific to cash market fertilizer purchases

and are in no way recommendations to take or exit a futures position.

Buy Signals

• Urea - Now that we are past the rush of spring demand, prices should continue to move lower as we move through summer. Keep in mind your local price may already reflect a large reset in price, and if your price is $450/ton or lower go ahead and book fall and/or spring tons. Our general recommendation is to hold off on fall and spring purchases at this time.

• UAN - retail prices have made their spring price peak and are moving lower. Our outlook is the same as urea, prices will continue to move lower throughout the summer. Do not purchase any UAN for the fall or spring yet. However, if your local price is below $325/ton for 32, you can go ahead and purchase tons.

• Ammonia - prices are moving in a similar fashion to the other nitrogen products and our retail price average should continue to move lower over the next couple months. Our general advice is the same, hold off on purchasing any fall needs at this time. If your local price is below $600/ton, go ahead and make purchases.

• DAP/MAP - Phosphate prices have weakened slightly at the retail level, but remain at an elevated level. We expect prices to continue moving lower and the risk is to the downside. Hold off on any fall purchases.

• Potash - Our retail price average for potash continues to languish near the lowest level since summer 2021. We recommend to increase coverage to 25% for fall potash needs at this time.

Urea

• Retail urea prices in the Midwest continue to push lower in a typical summer seasonal pattern. Our retail price average is down $38/ton to $513/ton since the last update.

• NOLA barge spot recovered somewhat after a dramatic move lower in the last update. Barges are up about $15/ton to the $305/ton area. CME urea futures are pricing in only a slight amount of movement one way or the other through the end of the year with prices expected to end of the year at the $315/ton level.

• Internationally, India surprised the market with a tender offer in the last week of June. Their prior tender did not result in the purchase of many tons, despite low prices, leading to ideas that they are well supplied in the country. This latest tender is for deliveries through the end of August and price information and final quantity is pending. Some international benchmarks traded higher on the news but it has had limited impact on U.S. prices thus far.

Outlook: As stated above, if your local price is below $450/ton you have the green light to buy for both fall and spring. Otherwise, hold off on any purchases as we expect this downward trend in retail prices to continue for the next couple months.

 UAN  

• Retail UAN prices in the Midwest have fallen $45/ton since the last update to $371/ton on a 32% basis. On a 28% basis, UAN prices average $338/ton in the Midwest. This is the largest monthly move lower in retail UAN prices since last summer and puts the average price at its lowest since March 2021.

• Chicago UAN futures show little change over the last month with prices expected to be between $200/ton and $205/ton through the end of the year.

Outlook: We should continue to see downward movement in UAN retail prices in the near future. While we are not officially making fertilizer purchase recommendations based off of our price average, if your local price is $325/ton or lower for 32% you can go ahead and make purchases.

 Ammonia

• Spot ammonia retail prices in the Midwest have declined $66ton to $728/ton on average since the last update. As is the case with other fertilizer markets, prices should continue to move lower into the fall.

• The July Tampa ammonia contract price between Yara and Mosaic was just settled $15/mt higher from June’s level of $400/mt. This follows a $50/mt decline from May to June.

• Summer ammonia prepay announcements should be released in the next few weeks, which could determine ultimately how much of a price reset we see in ammonia. Last summer saw prices just below $400/ton in some areas and with the way grain prices are it is unlikely we should see much of an increase year over year.

Outlook: If you receive an offer of $600/ton or lower for fall ammonia you can go ahead and book some tons. Otherwise, we do not recommend any purchases for the fall or spring currently again based on our retail price average, which should continue to move lower.

Phosphates 

• Prompt DAP barges recovered about $10/ton in June following an almost $100/ton decline in the prior update. Barges currently trade around $535/ton.

• Our retail price average in the Midwest decreased $22/ton to $765/ton since the last update.

• DAP futures in Chicago are not pricing in much change from the current spot Gulf price levels through the end of the year. It could be that we have found an equilibrium for now and traders are simply unsure of what the next move will be as there has been about a $200/ton range in prices in the last 12 months and it is difficult to believe that we won’t at least see half of that move going forward.

•  The gap between Gulf and retail prices continues to persist, although we should continue to see a pullback in phosphate prices at the retail level during the summer and perhaps finally close the gap somewhat.

  Interesting of note that the spread between DAP and MAP prices has increased substantially as of late with DAP falling and MAP more or less remaining level.

Outlook: Demand should be limited now for phosphates and we expect retail DAP and MAP prices to fall from their current price levels. We recommend to continue to hold off on purchasing any fall needs with the idea that there should be a nice pullback in price soon.

Potash 

• Average Midwest retail potash prices declined $10/ton to $498/ton since the last update.

• Prices in the Gulf are just a touch below $300/ton.

• As is usually the case with potash, there is not a whole lot of news floating out there and the market is rather stable from a supply/demand balance. It seems the generally lower trend in the fertilizer complex is pushing potash slightly lower. This should continue although we shouldn’t expect a large move lower at this point in this otherwise stable market.

Outlook: Our general recommendation is to increase coverage to 25% for the fall. If you have a price from your retailer on fall potash and it is lower than our current price average, go ahead and be more aggressive if it works for your operation.

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Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock.  Learn more...

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