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With harvest around the corner and corn prices hovering just shy of $3.00 in many areas, producers may be thinking that with a $3.86 crop insurance price, “Why manage risk, make sales, or create a plan while the corn price is below your guaranteed price?”
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03

Will beans go higher?

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Will beans go higher ? I think the bean story is one that could explode further based on the days of supply projections already out there. If you look at 75 days of supply in current USDA world projections, a failure or sub-par on yields in the US would put days of supply tighter than 2012. An over performance in demand achieves the same effect – what will a combination of both mean to foreign buyers who already see U.S. prices at a big advantage over Brazil offers?
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23

2015 Roach Ag Acreage Survey Results

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Roach Ag Marketing’s 2015 June Acreage Survey includes data from customers in 14 states. The survey period was June 9th – June 16th vs. the USDA survey period of May 29th – June 15th (estimated).
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19

Are beans bottoming?

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In early April, we emailed to you a special report on the 4-year soybean cycle which started with similar bullet points. What has changed in the last 2½ months? Not much for corn, but the soybean charts are starting to look interesting. Within the next few days, John Roach will complete a new webinar on his grain market outlook that summarizes the reasons he expects corn to be near $5.00 next year. John will tell you in his Daily Grain Plan when his new webinar is available.
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15

U.S. Corn Yields and El Nino

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Signs we could enter the peak growing season within an El Nino weather pattern has many in the trade talking about the chances for above trend corn yields. I read on the internet that all years we have been in an El Nino for the crop season, yields were above trend but that is not the case. We sum it up with the chart below.
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03

Do beans have more upside?

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If you haven’t already seen John Roach’s excellent webinar on his grain market outlook and the reasons he expects corn to be over $5.00 next year, click here. However, his fundamentals for soybeans are bearish. Logically, it is unlikely that soybeans will slip lower if corn is climbing 25% higher (think 2:1 soybean/corn ratio). But what will be the fundamentals that could spur soybeans to keep pace with or even outperform corn?
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28

The Real, Yuan and Your Soybean Prices, Part 1

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To figure out this year’s soybean price prospects, all you have to do is pencil in the whopping U.S. and South American crops, assume huge demand, guess how many soybean acres will be planted this spring in the U.S. and what kind of growing season we will have this summer. Right?
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13

Update on the crisis in Russia

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Global markets have already factored in Russia’s recent exit from the old crop wheat market. The questions now are: When will Russian wheat become available again and how much will they have for export?
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06

Currency War

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We have entered an all-out currency war. The most publicized salvo came 2 weeks ago from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi when he announced the ECB’s quantitative easing package of over $1 trillion euros. The ECB announced an open-ended bond-buying program of 60 billion euros ($70 billion) a month in an effort to fight off the prospect of outright deflation. (The region’s inflation rate was a negative .6% in January). After the ECB bombshell, the dollar index surged to its...
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06

2014 Ethanol Exports

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2014 Ethanol Exports
Final ethanol export data reported by the EIA pegged 2014 ethanol exports at 836 million gallons. Ethanol exports have been a key component to exceeding production rates above the 10% blend wall and have a piece of the above target run rate for this crop year. Top importing countries were....
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Roach Ag. Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag. Marketing Ltd. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. These materials do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. All forecasts of market conditions are inherently subjective and speculative, and actual results and subsequent forecasts may vary significantly from these forecasts.