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2015 Roach Ag Acreage Survey Results

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2015 Acreage Survey Results

 

Roach Ag Marketing’s 2015 June Acreage Survey includes data from customers in 14 states. The survey period was June 9th – June 16th vs. the USDA survey period of May 29th – June 15th (estimated).
 
Factoid: Last year, (2014), the USDA in their March Planting Intentions report, estimated 91.7 million acres of corn. Then in June, adjusted acreage to 91.6. Acreage then slowly ticked lower into the final January report, pegging corn acres at 90.6, down 1.1 million acres from the original March Intentions. Will history repeat?
We begin our analysis assuming a USDA March Planting Intentions figure of 89.2 million corn acres and 84.6 million bean acres. In states with a small number of survey responses, we assumed no change to the USDA planting intentions numbers.

The Roach Ag survey reported corn planted acreage down 1.1 million acres from the USDA March Planting Intentions or 88.1 million planted corn acres.

Our 2015 survey projects the largest corn area reductions in Missouri (-440,000), Nebraska (-150,000), and Kansas (-150,000). Reductions are also seen in Texas (-130,000), Indiana (-70,000), and Ohio (-40,000).

Similar to last year, we do think the trend in planted corn acres will be smaller as a persistently wet spring pushed troubled areas beyond final plant dates and with a lower crop insurance guarantee for beans, growers elected to take Prevent Plant or gamble on beans. Different than last year is how low insurance guarantees have fallen and therefore we do not see corn acres growing significantly in any state. 

This year we asked growers to report how their crops looked compared to last year. There were some nice rebounds with how growers rated their crop in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Crops were rated considerably lower in Missouri, Kansas, and North Dakota.

For soybeans, growers in several states in the plains are facing unknowns with regards to final planting figures. Some will take prevent plant but we think many will attempt to plant beans on into July.

We will issue a secondary re-survey of final soybean planting numbers to share with customers in the first week of July.

Thank you to everyone who responded. If you are not a current Roach Ag subscriber and would like access to reports like this in the future, give us a call and sign up for a free 30-day trial.

 

 





Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Helping Farmers Since 1978
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by Roach Ag. Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag. Marketing Ltd. is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. These materials do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. All forecasts of market conditions are inherently subjective and speculative, and actual results and subsequent forecasts may vary significantly from these forecasts.