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09

December USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA had little upside to offer bullish traders in today’s report not already in current values. Ending stock estimates were below the average guess for U.S. soybeans which on the surface is friendly. World estimates came pretty much inline vs trade estimates. The largest adjustment for beans came in exports with a 40 million bushel increase over the November target but without changes to U.S. or S. American production, traders are left with the same ideas.
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10

November USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA disappointed the bears with a lower corn yield at 173.4 bu/acre, 1.8 bu/acre below the average trade guess and down from the October 174.2 bu/acre number. Corn acres were left unchanged, likely a January event for the USDA to make a final acre adjustments. Soybean yield was increased just .4 bu/acre from the October 47.1 bu/acre number and was right at the average trade guess. Bean acres were left unchanged, leaving ending stocks unchanged at a plentiful 450 million bushels after exp...
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09

October USDA Supply & Demand

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Overall the USDA disappointed the most bearish trade ideas for corn and soybeans. Holding yields below the average trade guess while trimming acreage (700,000 acres each harvested) was the most friendly set of numbers I think we could see. Demand numbers for corn were adjusted just 50 million bushels higher on feed and meat growth expectations. Soybean demand was unchanged and without a larger bump in production this month, meal spreads are widening in the Oct/Dec and deferred spreads.
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30

USDA September Quarterly Grain Stocks

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SOYBEANS: In today’s USDA September stocks report, bean stocks were cut by 49 million bushels from last year suggesting demand and beginning stocks for the 2014 crop year will need adjustments. Demand would be expected to rise as less beans on hand equates to greater demand than expected. The problem is at the same time last year’s soybean crop was increased by 69 million bushels based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year data.
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11

September USDA Supply & Demand

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Today's USDA supply/demand report included few surprises to traders expecting larger soybean and corn yields. Today's report will likely have a more dramatic effect in the meal and bean futures as today's increase leads us to think another round of bean yield increases is in order. Bean ending stocks were increased above the trade guess by 22 million bushels to 475 million leading us to think the trade will consider the potential of a 500 million bushel ending stocks number by November a potent...
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12

August USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA held their soybean supply/demand outlook steady, adding 15 million bushels to U.S. ending stocks now at 430 million bushels. Bean yields were adjusted up slightly to 45.4 bu/acre from 45.2 bu/acre.
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11

July USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA surprised traders by leaving corn yields unchanged but incorporated June acre estimates, lowering harvested acres 500,000 equating to 82 million less bushels of production. Demand was adjusted lower but only by 50 million bushels, less than the June stocks gain and only in the feed line item.
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30

June 30th USDA Acreage & Stocks Reports

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Corn planted area for all purposes in 2014 is estimated at 91.6 million acres, down 4% from last year and compares to an average trade guess of 91.725 million acres. As we expected, the USDA did not pick up on late planting results nor prevent planting on this report.
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11

June USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA supply/demand report offered little few surprises for traders as key components to the report were left unchanged. In old crop, corn ending stocks were left unchanged, soybeans adjusted 5 million bushels lower and wheat adjusted up by just 10 million bushels. Versus the trade guess the latest data was somewhat friendly corn, beans and neutral wheat.
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09

May USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA Report pegged the old crop 2013-14 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.146 billion bushels, well below lowest trade estimate which ranged from 1.231 to 1.435 billion bushels. Surprisingly old crop corn prices 15 minutes after the release are trading lower not higher! Bigger than expected usage estimates were the reason for the smaller stocks.
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.