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30

USDA September Quarterly Grain Stocks

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SOYBEANS: In today’s USDA September stocks report, bean stocks were cut by 49 million bushels from last year suggesting demand and beginning stocks for the 2014 crop year will need adjustments. Demand would be expected to rise as less beans on hand equates to greater demand than expected. The problem is at the same time last year’s soybean crop was increased by 69 million bushels based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year data.
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11

September USDA Supply & Demand

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Today's USDA supply/demand report included few surprises to traders expecting larger soybean and corn yields. Today's report will likely have a more dramatic effect in the meal and bean futures as today's increase leads us to think another round of bean yield increases is in order. Bean ending stocks were increased above the trade guess by 22 million bushels to 475 million leading us to think the trade will consider the potential of a 500 million bushel ending stocks number by November a potent...
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12

August USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA held their soybean supply/demand outlook steady, adding 15 million bushels to U.S. ending stocks now at 430 million bushels. Bean yields were adjusted up slightly to 45.4 bu/acre from 45.2 bu/acre.
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11

July USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA surprised traders by leaving corn yields unchanged but incorporated June acre estimates, lowering harvested acres 500,000 equating to 82 million less bushels of production. Demand was adjusted lower but only by 50 million bushels, less than the June stocks gain and only in the feed line item.
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30

June 30th USDA Acreage & Stocks Reports

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Corn planted area for all purposes in 2014 is estimated at 91.6 million acres, down 4% from last year and compares to an average trade guess of 91.725 million acres. As we expected, the USDA did not pick up on late planting results nor prevent planting on this report.
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11

June USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA supply/demand report offered little few surprises for traders as key components to the report were left unchanged. In old crop, corn ending stocks were left unchanged, soybeans adjusted 5 million bushels lower and wheat adjusted up by just 10 million bushels. Versus the trade guess the latest data was somewhat friendly corn, beans and neutral wheat.
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09

May USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA Report pegged the old crop 2013-14 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.146 billion bushels, well below lowest trade estimate which ranged from 1.231 to 1.435 billion bushels. Surprisingly old crop corn prices 15 minutes after the release are trading lower not higher! Bigger than expected usage estimates were the reason for the smaller stocks.
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09

April USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA raised U.S. soybean imports by 30 million bushels to solve for a very tight current stocks position at 135 million bushels, down from 145 last month and just under the trade guess of 139 million bushels. The move by the USDA suggests stocks are actually much tighter and U.S. buyers will have to rely on S. American supplies to manage stocks.
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Today’s U.S. Planting Intentions report indicates farmers said they intend to reduce corn acres for soybeans in 84,500 surveys taken the last week of February and early March. The trade was looking for 92.74 million acres on average, leaving the surveyed number below the trade guess by just over 1 million acres.
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10

March USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s mid-day release of the latest supply/demand number pegged corn ending stocks at 1.456 Billion bushels, within the trade guess range. Soybean ending stocks were reported at 145 million bushels, slightly higher than the average trade guess but well within the range. I think it is as much Chinese cargo cancellations from Brazil that has the oilseed complex lower early this afternoon. The USDA also chose to raise soybean imports (+5 million bu) , suggesting they see price advantages comi...
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.