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09

April USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA April world supply/demand update carried few big adjustments. Some traders (Not us) thought the USDA could lower feed numbers by as much as 100 million bushels lower but today’s report included just a 50 million bushel reduction. Prior to the April report, the USDA had been steady increasing feed demand based on animal counts which indicates they must still see upside in feed demand but will wait for more data and the June stocks update.
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What the USDA told market participants is we have more corn in the bin than expected (130 million more than the trade guess), while bean supplies are slightly tighter. This would imply corn demand would be adjusted slightly lower in the next USDA supply/demand report while bean demand would be increased, all things being equal. Wheat stocks were reported lower than expected, taken as positive for prices but wheat looks to be following corn post report.
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09

March USDA Supply & Demand

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WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are reduced 1 million bushels with an increase in expected seed use. The seed use change is based on the 2015 planted area projection released at USDA’s February Agricultural Outlook Forum. The projected season-average farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low ends to $5.90 to $6.10 per bushel.
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10

February USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA report was seen as friendly old crop beans, neutral corn and bearish wheat. Nearby bean futures could benefit from a 25 million bushel reduction in stocks, 13 million more than the average trade guess on higher export and crush demand. Larger Argentine bean production offset a small downward revision to Brazil’s bean estimate. We think that will be the story on South America, higher Argentine crops, smaller Brazil bean crops. U.S. growers who have little new crop contracted are f...
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12

January USDA Supply/Demand

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Today’s triple report from the USDA had little to offer bullish traders from the standpoint of larger demand outlooks. A bullish corn report is getting overshadowed by the gloomier soybean data. Traders should take adjustments to corn production in a 2.4 bu/acre yield reduction but harvested acres were left unchanged as overall supportive. The trade was looking for an acre reduction of 332,000 acres.
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09

December USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA had little upside to offer bullish traders in today’s report not already in current values. Ending stock estimates were below the average guess for U.S. soybeans which on the surface is friendly. World estimates came pretty much inline vs trade estimates. The largest adjustment for beans came in exports with a 40 million bushel increase over the November target but without changes to U.S. or S. American production, traders are left with the same ideas.
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10

November USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA disappointed the bears with a lower corn yield at 173.4 bu/acre, 1.8 bu/acre below the average trade guess and down from the October 174.2 bu/acre number. Corn acres were left unchanged, likely a January event for the USDA to make a final acre adjustments. Soybean yield was increased just .4 bu/acre from the October 47.1 bu/acre number and was right at the average trade guess. Bean acres were left unchanged, leaving ending stocks unchanged at a plentiful 450 million bushels after exp...
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09

October USDA Supply & Demand

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Overall the USDA disappointed the most bearish trade ideas for corn and soybeans. Holding yields below the average trade guess while trimming acreage (700,000 acres each harvested) was the most friendly set of numbers I think we could see. Demand numbers for corn were adjusted just 50 million bushels higher on feed and meat growth expectations. Soybean demand was unchanged and without a larger bump in production this month, meal spreads are widening in the Oct/Dec and deferred spreads.
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30

USDA September Quarterly Grain Stocks

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SOYBEANS: In today’s USDA September stocks report, bean stocks were cut by 49 million bushels from last year suggesting demand and beginning stocks for the 2014 crop year will need adjustments. Demand would be expected to rise as less beans on hand equates to greater demand than expected. The problem is at the same time last year’s soybean crop was increased by 69 million bushels based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year data.
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11

September USDA Supply & Demand

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Today's USDA supply/demand report included few surprises to traders expecting larger soybean and corn yields. Today's report will likely have a more dramatic effect in the meal and bean futures as today's increase leads us to think another round of bean yield increases is in order. Bean ending stocks were increased above the trade guess by 22 million bushels to 475 million leading us to think the trade will consider the potential of a 500 million bushel ending stocks number by November a potent...
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.