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09

October USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA increased corn yields in several key states on average by ½ bu/acre while decreasing harvested acres by 400,000 to 80.7 million acres vs. a 80.826 million acre estimate. Demand numbers remained unchanged including no revision to exports. Overall the report is seen as neutral to bearish and offers little reason to expect new lows heading forward. August lows will hold.
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Today’s stocks and all positions report is seen as neutral corn, supportive beans and wheat. In the wheat production update, the USDA lowered all wheat by 84 million bushels to 2.052 Billion bushels, below the low side trade guess of 2.105 Billion bushels. Small adjustments were made from the August report with winter wheat showing the largest decline, down 68 million bushels. Obviously current wheat prices are having an impact on grower sentiment for wheat planting this year as well as a sm...
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11

September USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA report missed trade expectations for US bean yields and stocks although left acreage alone. Soybean ending stocks are now forecasted at 450 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month. Trade will now need to asses where stocks might be after the October report with ideas of 1 -1.5 million fewer acres.
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11

August USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA’s first survey based yield estimate pegged corn and soybean yields well above market expectations. Corn yield was reported at 168 bu/acre, 3.3 bu/acre over the average trade guess. With no change to corn acres, production increased 156 million bushels over the July report and 354 million over the average trade guess. Demand increased ...
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10

July USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA’s decision to leave corn and soybean yields unchanged had zero impact on prices as traders eye a tighter world coarse grain and oilseed picture this fall. World corn ending stocks for 2015/16 have declined by 5.24 million tons since the June report and were below the average trade guess of 192.31 million tons at 189.95 million tons today.
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30

June USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Acreage

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Today’s double whammy bullish USDA reports gave traders no basis to expect lower demand out into 2016. Stocks for corn and soybeans were reported 110 million bushels and 45 million bushels respectively, smaller than the average trade guess.
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09

June USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s monthly USDA supply/demand report offered few changes in U.S. data but did adjust World corn/coarse grain stocks higher while lowering soybean stocks more than expected. USDA economists again reiterated they will stick to a “Weather adjusted yield” method in forecasting final U.S. yields. This leaves the fast planting of this year’s crop a neutral trade point in the corn/soybean trade for now.
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12

May USDA Supply & Demand

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Beans: Todays USDA report was considered bearish vs. trade expectations as larger than expected fall stocks inch closer to reality if weather permits. The USDA pegged old crop ending stocks at just 350 million bushels compared to pre-report expectations for 360 million bushels.
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09

April USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA April world supply/demand update carried few big adjustments. Some traders (Not us) thought the USDA could lower feed numbers by as much as 100 million bushels lower but today’s report included just a 50 million bushel reduction. Prior to the April report, the USDA had been steady increasing feed demand based on animal counts which indicates they must still see upside in feed demand but will wait for more data and the June stocks update.
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What the USDA told market participants is we have more corn in the bin than expected (130 million more than the trade guess), while bean supplies are slightly tighter. This would imply corn demand would be adjusted slightly lower in the next USDA supply/demand report while bean demand would be increased, all things being equal. Wheat stocks were reported lower than expected, taken as positive for prices but wheat looks to be following corn post report.
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.