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11

August USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA’s first survey based yield estimate pegged corn and soybean yields well above market expectations. Corn yield was reported at 168 bu/acre, 3.3 bu/acre over the average trade guess. With no change to corn acres, production increased 156 million bushels over the July report and 354 million over the average trade guess. Demand increased ...
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10

July USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA’s decision to leave corn and soybean yields unchanged had zero impact on prices as traders eye a tighter world coarse grain and oilseed picture this fall. World corn ending stocks for 2015/16 have declined by 5.24 million tons since the June report and were below the average trade guess of 192.31 million tons at 189.95 million tons today.
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30

June USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Acreage

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Today’s double whammy bullish USDA reports gave traders no basis to expect lower demand out into 2016. Stocks for corn and soybeans were reported 110 million bushels and 45 million bushels respectively, smaller than the average trade guess.
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09

June USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s monthly USDA supply/demand report offered few changes in U.S. data but did adjust World corn/coarse grain stocks higher while lowering soybean stocks more than expected. USDA economists again reiterated they will stick to a “Weather adjusted yield” method in forecasting final U.S. yields. This leaves the fast planting of this year’s crop a neutral trade point in the corn/soybean trade for now.
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12

May USDA Supply & Demand

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Beans: Todays USDA report was considered bearish vs. trade expectations as larger than expected fall stocks inch closer to reality if weather permits. The USDA pegged old crop ending stocks at just 350 million bushels compared to pre-report expectations for 360 million bushels.
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09

April USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA April world supply/demand update carried few big adjustments. Some traders (Not us) thought the USDA could lower feed numbers by as much as 100 million bushels lower but today’s report included just a 50 million bushel reduction. Prior to the April report, the USDA had been steady increasing feed demand based on animal counts which indicates they must still see upside in feed demand but will wait for more data and the June stocks update.
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What the USDA told market participants is we have more corn in the bin than expected (130 million more than the trade guess), while bean supplies are slightly tighter. This would imply corn demand would be adjusted slightly lower in the next USDA supply/demand report while bean demand would be increased, all things being equal. Wheat stocks were reported lower than expected, taken as positive for prices but wheat looks to be following corn post report.
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09

March USDA Supply & Demand

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WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are reduced 1 million bushels with an increase in expected seed use. The seed use change is based on the 2015 planted area projection released at USDA’s February Agricultural Outlook Forum. The projected season-average farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low ends to $5.90 to $6.10 per bushel.
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10

February USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA report was seen as friendly old crop beans, neutral corn and bearish wheat. Nearby bean futures could benefit from a 25 million bushel reduction in stocks, 13 million more than the average trade guess on higher export and crush demand. Larger Argentine bean production offset a small downward revision to Brazil’s bean estimate. We think that will be the story on South America, higher Argentine crops, smaller Brazil bean crops. U.S. growers who have little new crop contracted are f...
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12

January USDA Supply/Demand

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Today’s triple report from the USDA had little to offer bullish traders from the standpoint of larger demand outlooks. A bullish corn report is getting overshadowed by the gloomier soybean data. Traders should take adjustments to corn production in a 2.4 bu/acre yield reduction but harvested acres were left unchanged as overall supportive. The trade was looking for an acre reduction of 332,000 acres.
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.