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09

February USDA Supply & Demand

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Initial numbers below:
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Today’s USDA reports reduced corn (0.8 bu per acre) and bean yields (0.3 bu per acre) surprising traders and pushing bean prices up over their green line 20-day moving average. Meal and all wheat contracts also surged through their resistance lines putting spec traders on notice that most short term crop market trends are turning up from down. Corn bumped up against its green line but did not clear that before sagging.
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09

December USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA made minor adjustments in this report as trade looks to the Janurary report for more substantial supply/demand changes. The USDA did lower corn demand 25 million bushels by decreasing exports 50 million bushels and increased corn for ethanol by 25 million bushels. Soybeans and wheat were unchanged from November.
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10

November USDA Supply & Demand

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USDA estimates for U.S. corn and soybean yields exceeded the top end of trade guesses in both commodities and set the stage for an overall disappointing report for the bulls. Soybeans: U.S. demand for soybeans increased 40 million in exports and 10 million for crush but was not enough to offset the 93 million bushel larger bean production number. Soybean ending stocks increased above the top end guess at 465 million bushels.
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09

October USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA increased corn yields in several key states on average by ½ bu/acre while decreasing harvested acres by 400,000 to 80.7 million acres vs. a 80.826 million acre estimate. Demand numbers remained unchanged including no revision to exports. Overall the report is seen as neutral to bearish and offers little reason to expect new lows heading forward. August lows will hold.
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Today’s stocks and all positions report is seen as neutral corn, supportive beans and wheat. In the wheat production update, the USDA lowered all wheat by 84 million bushels to 2.052 Billion bushels, below the low side trade guess of 2.105 Billion bushels. Small adjustments were made from the August report with winter wheat showing the largest decline, down 68 million bushels. Obviously current wheat prices are having an impact on grower sentiment for wheat planting this year as well as a sm...
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11

September USDA Supply & Demand

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Today’s USDA report missed trade expectations for US bean yields and stocks although left acreage alone. Soybean ending stocks are now forecasted at 450 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month. Trade will now need to asses where stocks might be after the October report with ideas of 1 -1.5 million fewer acres.
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11

August USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA’s first survey based yield estimate pegged corn and soybean yields well above market expectations. Corn yield was reported at 168 bu/acre, 3.3 bu/acre over the average trade guess. With no change to corn acres, production increased 156 million bushels over the July report and 354 million over the average trade guess. Demand increased ...
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10

July USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA’s decision to leave corn and soybean yields unchanged had zero impact on prices as traders eye a tighter world coarse grain and oilseed picture this fall. World corn ending stocks for 2015/16 have declined by 5.24 million tons since the June report and were below the average trade guess of 192.31 million tons at 189.95 million tons today.
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30

June USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Acreage

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Today’s double whammy bullish USDA reports gave traders no basis to expect lower demand out into 2016. Stocks for corn and soybeans were reported 110 million bushels and 45 million bushels respectively, smaller than the average trade guess.
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.