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09

March USDA Supply & Demand

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U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2016/17 include higher crush, lower exports, and increased ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,940 million on increased domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 2,025 million with increased production and exports for Brazil.
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09

February USDA Supply & Demand

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In soybeans, the USDA supply/demand report left U.S. ending stocks unchanged compared to expectations for a small reduction tied to higher exports. World ending stocks 80.38 million tons vs the estimate of 81.2 million tons. Brazilian bean production was unchanged at 104 million tons, close to pre-report expectations in a February report where changes are typically small. Argentine bean production was reduced 1.5 million tons to 55.5 million tons vs a 54.5 million ton pre-report guess.
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The USDA gave a friendly outlook for soybeans and wheat in today's report. They reduced the soybean harvested area by 300,000 acres and lowered the soybean yield by 0.4 bushels. Total soybean production was down 54 million bushels as a result. Soybean carryout came in at 420 million bushels, down 60 million bushels from last month, and 53 million bushels below the average trade guess.
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09

December USDA Supply & Demand

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SOYBEANS: The USDA’s December supply/demand report was slightly bearish on its own as ending stocks came in at 480 million bushels with an average trade guess for 470 million bushels. U.S. exports were unchanged with the trade thinking ending stocks would decline tied to higher Chinese import needs. World ending stocks were the more bearish in the soybean report as stocks increased to 82.9 million tons versus trade estimates at 81.4 million tons. S. American crops were unchanged. Soybean futur...
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09

November USDA Supply & Demand

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The USDA drastically increased corn and soybean yields over the trade guess in today’s mid-day supply/demand report. The corn yield was increased just over the high end guess to 175.3 bu/acre, right at the INTL FCStone estimate. The average trade guess was 173.4 bu/acre.
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12

October USDA Supply & Demand

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Corn data was all very close to expectations with the trend in yield declining as the trade expected. Surprising to see Illinois above 2014 at 202 bu/acre state average.
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Today's USDA stocks report offered a neutral result for the beans and slightly bullish response in corn. Wheat stocks can be taken as bearish upon prices overall but we do see upside potential in Minneapolis wheat if wet weather continues to hinder quality.
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12

September USDA Supply & Demand

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Today the USDA confirmed their forecast for record U.S. yields, record U.S. crop production and record demand. Prices for all crops fell following the USDA reports.
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12

August USDA Supply & Demand

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SOYBEANS: The USDA Supply/demand report for beans should be considered bearish against pre-report estimates with old crop stocks reported at 255 million bushels compared to a 350 million bushel estimate, demand continues to rise on higher exports and slightly higher crush.
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12

July USDA Supply & Demand

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Corn - The USDA supply/demand July update for corn we consider mostly bullish vs. the trade guesses. Old crop ending stocks came 100 million bushels lower than expected at 1.701 Billion bushels driven by higher exports and ethanol. New crop ending stocks were pegged at 2.081 Billion bushels vs a trade expectation of 2.205 Billion bushels taken as bullish partly on a smaller carry in number.
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.