Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Linkedin
800-622-7628

USDA Data


Minimize

12

June USDA Supply & Demand

posted on

The USDA confirmed tightening domestic and world corn fundamentals in today's World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE) update.

U.S. old crop 17-18 corn stocks were reduced 80 million bushels to 2.102 billion bushels, below the average trade guess of 2.166 and smaller than even the lowest trade estimate. The reduction came from a 5 million bushel decrease in imports and a 75 million bushel increase to exports. New crop 18-19 corn stocks entered the 1.5 billion bushel territory for the first time since 13/14's 1.232 billion bushel carryout.

Corn ending stocks for 2018-19 were reduced 105 million bushels to 1.577 billion bushels, this was well below the average trade guess looking for 1.663 billion but within the range of expectations. The reduction largely came from the smaller carry-in from 17/18 and a 50 million bushel increase in corn for ethanol demand.

World old crop corn supplies came in at 192.69 million tons, below the average trade guess of 193.39 and 2.16 million tons smaller than the May estimate. World new crop corn ending stocks also came in below trade expectations at 154.69 millions vs. the average trade guess of 157.56.

U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 17-18 crop year were reduced 25 million bushels to 0.505 billion, below the average trade guess of 0.522 billion bushels.

New crop 18/19 bean stocks were reduced by 30 million bushels to 0.385 billion, largly due to the smaller old crop carry-in and a 5 million bushel increase in crush demand. This was well below the average trade guess of 0.417 billion bushels and even below the low end trade estimate.

World soybean stocks were little changed for both old and new crop. Ending stocks for 17-18 came in at 92.49 million tons, just 0.33 million tons over last month, but above trade guesses looking for 91.35. Reductions in Argentina's bean crop were offset by an increase in Brazil's production. New crop 18-19 ending stocks came in at 87.02, just 0.32 million tons over last month, but above trade expectations looking for 86.74.

U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 17-18 crop year were increased by 10 million bushels to 1.080 billion bushels, but this was in line with trade expectations. New crop 18-19 ending stocks were increased by 9 million bushels to 0.946 billion, below trade guesses looking for 0.958.

World wheat carryout for both new and old crop increased as smaller production estimates were more than offset by reduced global demand.Old crop world wheat ending stocks came in at 272.37 million tons, above trade estimates looking for 269.99 million tons. New crop ending stocks were estimated at 266.16 million tons, an increase of 1.83 from last month and above the trade guess of 263.00.

The report was seen as largely bullish with domestic supply expectations shrinking before the corn & bean crops have even been "made". Given this new supply outlook, yields will really need to outperform to maintain surpluses and any weather issues during the summer could easily send ending stocks into rationing territory. The price environment moving forward should prove more volatile than the past few years until we have a better idea of how yields will turn out.

2017-18 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA
June 2018
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
May 2018
Corn
2.102
2.166
2.132-2.192
2.182
Soybeans
0.505
0.522
0.473-0.550
0.530
Wheat
1.080
1.079
1.045-1.100
1.070

 

2018-19 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA
June 2018
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
May 2018
Corn
1.577
1.663
1.495-1.790
1.682
Soybeans
0.385
0.417
0.395-0.480
0.415
Wheat
0.946
0.958
0.820-0.994
0.955

 

2017-18 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA
June 2018
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
May 2018
Corn
192.69 
193.39
190.0-195.1
194.85
Soybeans
92.49
91.35
88.3-93.1
92.16
Wheat
272.37 
269.99
267.0-271.0
270.46

 

2018-19 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA
June 2018
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
May 2018
Corn
 154.69
157.56
150.67-161.00
159.15
Soybeans
 87.02
86.74
83.50-92.10
86.70
Wheat
 266.16
263.00
260.00-265.80
264.33

 

2018-19 Wheat Production (bln bu)
 
USDA
June 2018
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
May 2018
All Winter
1.198
1.190
1.159-1.221
1.192
HRW
 0.650
0.645
0.608-0.670
0.647
SRW
 0.316
0.318
0.310-0.325
0.315
White
 0.232
0.228
0.202-0.242
0.229
All Wheat
1.827
1.822
1.787-1.870
1.821

 

2017-18 USDA South American Production (million tons)
 
USDA
June 2018
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
May 2018
ARG Corn
33.00
32.53
31.0-33.0
33.0
ARG Soy
 37.00
37.89
36.0-39.0
39.0
BRZ Corn
 85.00
84.47
78.4-87.0
87.0
BRZ Soy
119.00
117.43
117.0-119.0
117.0
Categories: | Tags: | View Count: (1439) | Return
Click Here to Sign Up for a Free 30 Day Trial
Click Here to start your subscription today
Give Us A Call

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.