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12

January USDA Supply & Demand and Quarterly Grain Stocks

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Today’s USDA reports had few changes from last month or what was expected. U.S. corn yields were increased by 1.2 bushels per acre. Beans were cut by 0.4 bpa and wheat was unchanged.

2017-18 USDA U.S. Yield (bu/acre)
 
USDA Jan
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Dec
2016-17
Corn
176.6
175.4
173.7-177.0
175.4
Soybeans
49.1
49.5
49.0-50.0
49.5
Wheat
46.3
 
 
46.3

 

U.S. corn production was a shade bigger than expected while the bean crop was back down 38 million bushels which gave bean prices a lift on futures today.

2017-18 USDA U.S. Production (bln bu)
 
USDA Jan
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Dec
2017-18
Corn
14.604
14.580
14.434-14.750
14.578
Soybeans
4.392
4.430
4.385-4.475
4.425
Wheat
1.741
 
 
1.741

 

Grain stocks are bigger than last year at this time, but not by much. Corn stocks were bigger than expected beans stocks were smaller. Notice that wheat stocks are actually smaller in the U.S. than last year. Not that it mattered to traders today.

U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks (bln bu)
 
USDA
Jan 2018
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Jan 2017
Corn
12.516
12.429
12.230-12.675
12.386
Soybeans
3.157
3.179
2.963-3.306
2.898
Wheat
1.874
1.851
1.725-2.005
2.007

 

Carryover estimates followed the pattern.

2017-18 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Jan
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Dec
2017-18
Corn
2.477
2.437
2.263-2.550
2.437
Soybeans
0.470
0.479
0.442-0.595
0.445
Wheat
0.989
0.959
0.855-0.987
0.960

 

Wheat growers surprised traders by planting 1.1 million acres more than was expected. That was what the traders reacted to in the market today.

2018-19 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings (mln acres)
 
USDA
Jan 2018-19
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
2017-18
All Winter
32.6
31.5
30.1-32.5
32.7
HRW
23.1
22.4
21.1-23.3
23.4
SRW
5.98
5.6
5.2-5.9
5.7
White
3.56
3.5
3.1-3.8
3.5

 

World numbers reflect bigger corn supplies and slightly smaller soybean stocks. We these world numbers will be replaced by smaller numbers next year.

2017-18 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Jan
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Dec
2017-18
Corn
206.57
202.6
197.0-207.0
204.1
Soybeans
98.57
99.0
97.0-100.4
98.3
Wheat
268.02
268.1
265.0-271.0
268.4

 

2017-18 USDA South American Production (million tons)
 
USDA
Jan 2018
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Dec 2017
ARG Corn
42.0
41.4
40.0-42.5
42.0
ARG Soy
56.0
56.0
54.0-58.0
57.0
BRZ Corn
95.0
93.3
86.7-98.5
95.0
BRZ Soy
110.0
110.1
108.0-115.0
108.0
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.