7 December November USDA Supply & Demand December 7, 2020 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand usda, wasde 0 The USDA reduced U.S. corn and bean yield and production estimates even more than traders expected, giving us a solidly positive report for corn and beans. Wheat, not so much. Soybean production was forecast at 4.17 billion bushels, down 98 million bushels on smaller yields. Soybean ending stocks were reduced by 100 million bushels from last month. Foreign oilseed production was lowered 5.6 million tons to 473.3 million tons. Corn production was forecast at 14.507 billion bushels, down 215 million bushels from last month, with yields cut to 175.8 bushels per acre. Corn exports were also raised by 325 million bushels to a total of 2.065 billion bushels – a new record. Feed and residual use was cut by 75 million bushes and ending stocks were cut by 465 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels, the smallest since 2013-14. Global corn ending stocks were 291.4 million tons, down 9 million from last month. Wheat usage was raised by 5 million bushels based on higher food use during the marketing year. Ending stocks were reduced by 6 million bushels to 877 million bushels. China’s import pace continues to be robust and at 8.0 million tons, imports would be the largest since 1995/96. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons to 320.5 million but remain record high. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts November 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Traders react bearish to USDA numbers Corn The USDA raised their US corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bushels, increasing their estimate from 173.0 to 174.9 bpa from October to November. The USDA raised the 2023 US corn production to a record 15.234 billion bushels, up from 15.064 billion last month, and the average trade estimate of 15.079 billion. Corn ending stocks for next fall were estimated at 2.156 billion bushels, up from 2.111 billion last month, and the average trade guess of 2.131 billion bushels. Corn is in a 4-Box Buy Signal. Livestock producers should be purchasing feed. Soybeans The USDA bean yield was also increased, moving to 49.9 bpa from 49.6 bpa last month. The USDA soybean production estimate was pegged at 4.129 billion bushels, up from 4.104 billion last month. Soybean carryover increased to 245 million bushels, compared to 220 million bushels last month, and the average trade estimate of 222 million bushels. Wheat US wheat carryout for next July increased to 684 million bushels, compared to 670 million last month and the average trade estimate of 669 million bushels. Thoughts These numbers were ... November USDA Supply/Demand USDA raises corn and bean yields slightly; little change in stocks. Although it was not immediately apparent in the USDA supply demand report, Argentina is moving into a key role in world corn prices. The USDA forecast total world coarse grain exports at 225.12 million metric tons in today’s report. 59.22 million tons were forecast to be shipped from the United States, with 46.5 million tons from Argentina, and 47.03 million tons from Brazil. That Argentine number was down half a million tons from last month. Drought in Argentina is threatening their corn crop and moving that country into a more important role in corn prices. Our weather consultant didn’t see immediate relief for the Argentine drought in his report this morning. The majority of the Brazilian corn crop is planted as a second crop following soybeans and won’t have much impact on our market for several months. Meanwhile, corn prices have been beat down due to low water in the Mississippi and discounted feed grain prices in the Black Sea region. Our system is giving us the sixth day of a Buy ... November 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production U.S. carryover stocks not as large as traders feared Crop markets were all pressured during the past week as traders got ready for Tuesday’s USDA numbers. But the USDA did not surprise anybody with their production estimates or stocks numbers. As you can see from the table below, most of the November numbers were about as expected. The biggest surprise came in soybeans where price action had convinced everybody that surpluses were building. The USDA economists instead cut soybean production by 23 million bushels from October and pegged U.S. bean carryout 22 million bushels less than the average trade estimate. Remember, these are just numbers on a paper. As the old saying goes, “it takes money to buy whiskey”. The prices of today’s crop markets will not buy very many bushels from farmers anywhere. The South American crop is months away from harvest and U.S. farmers have locked their bins. The USDA forecast the size of demand in feed grains, wheat, and oilseeds are all expected to set new records in the year ahead. Our Buy Signal on soybeans this morning turned ... January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Old crop wheat and new crop corn stocks were both bigger than expected. Following the USDA reports today, wheat prices immediately slid lower. The corn market traded lower for a little bit but quickly began to recover. The bean market immediately recovered some small losses following the report. As you can see from the following table, wheat was the only crop that had a bigger carryout estimate for 2020-21 compared to trade estimates and last month’s estimates. The USDA old crop corn carryout estimate was slightly smaller than trade expected, while beans were right on target. For the first estimate of the 2021-22 new crop year, corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels were larger than traders expected. New crop wheat carryout was also bigger than expected with beans right where the traders thought. The USDA barely changed 2021-21 world ending stocks for corn, beans, and wheat from their April estimates. That left today’s USDA world corn number considerably larger than traders expected. Beans and wheat were close to what was ... Comments are closed.