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10

August USDA Supply & Demand

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HIGHLIGHTS:

On all accounts, the trade missed what the USDA would post in their first survey based report of the year. Corn supplies fell just 102 million bushels on a 1.4 bu/acre yield cut, down to 169.5 bu/acre. The trade was looking for a 4.5 bu/acre reduction. We have to remember in this report, USDA officials count ears per acre only. The ear count is multiplied by a historical ear weight to arrive at their yield projection. It might be for this reason, we see Indiana yields unchanged relative to last year while Nebraska and Ohio were rated better! ?

December corn is down for a test of recent lows ($3.70) and should be well supported given the dry weather pattern evident in key states since this report was compiled.

The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $2.90 to $3.70 per bushel.


For soybeans, yields were higher than last year for almost all states mid-south and below. See blue states below. The USDA marked the bean yield far above trade expectations at 49.4, almost 2 bu/acre above the trade guess. No changes were made to harvested acres which we will begin to see in the September and October reports with the more relied upon FSA data inputs.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2017/18 is forecast at $8.45 to $10.15 per bushel, down 10 cents at the midpoint. The soybean meal price forecast of $295 to $335 per short ton is down $5.00 at the midpoint. The soybean oil price is forecast at 31 to 35 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range.

 

2017-18 USDA U.S. Yield (bu/acre)
 
USDA Aug
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2017-18
Corn
169.5
166.2
162.8-168.5
170.7
Soybeans
49.4
47.5
46.9-48.0
48.0

 

2017-18 USDA U.S. Production (bln bu)
 
USDA Aug
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2017-18
Corn
 14.153 
13.855
13.590-14.070
14.255
Soybeans
4.381
4.212
4.165-4.307
4.260

 

2017-18 Wheat Production (bln bu)
 
USDA
Aug 2017
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Jul 2017
All Winter
1.287
1.278
1.258-1.293
1.278
HRW
0.758
0.756
0.737-0.775
0.758
SRW
0.306
0.307
0.300-0.311
0.306
White
0.223
0.215
0.205-0.224
0.216
Other Spring
0.402
0.393
0.350-0.440
0.423
Durum
0.051
0.056
0.050-0.065
0.058
All Wheat
1.739
1.711
1.550-1.784
1.760

 

2016-17 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Aug
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2016-17
Corn
2.370
2.386
2.340-2.730
2.370
Soybeans
0.370
0.401
0.370-0.420
0.410

 

2017-18 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Aug
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2017-18
Corn
2.273
2.003
1.642-2.375
2.325
Soybeans
0.475
0.424
0.369-0.474
0.460
Wheat
0.933
0.907
0.806-0.948
0.938

 

2016-17 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Aug
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2016-17
Corn
228.61
227.38
226.0-229.5
227.51
Soybeans
96.98
94.37
93.5-95.0
94.78
Wheat
258.56
258.42
257.0-261.0
258.05

 

 2017-18 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Aug
2017-18
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Jul
2017-18
Corn
200.87
197.91
183.0-200.5
200.81
Soybeans
97.78
92.12
89.0-94.0
93.53
Wheat
264.69
256.69
245.0-263.1
260.60

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.