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09

March USDA Supply & Demand

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OILSEEDS:

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2016/17 include higher crush, lower exports, and increased ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,940 million on increased domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 2,025 million with increased production and exports for Brazil.

U.S. soybean stocks are projected at 435 million bushels, up 15 million from last month and above trade expectations by 17 million bushels. With increased crush, soybean oil production, exports, and ending stocks are forecast higher. The season average soybean price range forecast of $9.30 to $9.90 per bushel is raised 10 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are unchanged at $310 to $340 per short ton.

The 2016/17 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed supplies are raised 3.2 million tons to 646.9 million mainly on a 4 million ton increase to the Brazilian soybean crop, which is projected at a record 108 million tons. The crop has benefited from favorable weather with ample rainfall throughout the growing season, raising the prospects for record yields.   World bean stocks exceeded the trade guess by 1.3 million tons. 

 

COARSE GRAINS:

This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for increased ethanol and reduced feed and residual use. Corn used in ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5,400 million bushels but was offset by a 50 million bushel reduction in projected feed and residual use to 5,550 million bushels on increased sorghum feeding. Ending stocks are unchanged and inline with trade expectations.  The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.20 to $3.60 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast 12.7 million tons higher on Brazilian corn production. Reported first crop yields have been record high, while the rapid planting progress of second crop corn in the Center-West boosts expected area and yield prospects, allowing for greater crop development prior to the normal end of the rainy season. Argentina corn production is increased based on higher than expected yield results for early-planted corn and indications of larger planted area.

World corn ending stocks came in at 220.68 million tons, just more than 2 million tons above the average trade guess.

 

WHEAT:

U.S. wheat imports for 2016/17 are reduced this month by 10 million bushels to 115 million. Ending stocks are projected lower by the same amount to 1.129 Billion bushels, slightly lower than the trade guess of 1.135 Billion bushels. The season average farm price is unchanged with the midpoint of the range at $3.85 per bushel. Internationally, global production increased 2.8 million tons to 751.1 million, mainly due to larger crops in Argentina and Australia more than offsetting a slight reduction in the European Union. Australia’s 2016/17 wheat production is raised 2.0 million tons to a record large 35.0 million.

USDA model -based analysis of weather data estimates Australia’s yield in line with the latest Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) estimate. Projected exports are increased for both

Australia and Argentina on their larger supplies while Canada’s exports are reduced on a sluggish export pace. Global imports are raised this month led by India, which was raised 1.8 million tons to 5.5 million. This would be the largest wheat import total for India since 2006/07; India stocks have successively declined since 2012/13. Despite higher projected global use, driven by India, 2016/17 global ending stocks are increased by 1.3 million tons to 249.9 million.

2016-17 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA
Mar
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Feb
2016-17
Corn
2.320
2.317
2.245-2.385
2.320
Soybeans
0.435
0.418
0.400-0.444
0.420
Wheat
1.129
1.135
1.050-1.164
1.139

2016-17 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA
Mar
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Feb
2016-17
Corn
220.68
218.51
217.00-223.10
217.56
Soybeans
82.82
81.52
80.44-83.00
80.38
Wheat
249.94
248.62
246.00-250.00
248.61

2016-17 South American Production (million tons)
 
USDA
Mar
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Feb
2016-17
ARG Corn
37.50
36.46
35.00-37.00
36.50
ARG Soy
55.50
55.20
54.00-56.00
55.50
BRZ Corn
91.50
87.78
86.00-91.50
86.50
BRZ Soy
108.00
105.95
104.00-109.00
104.00
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.