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09

December USDA Supply & Demand

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SOYBEANS:
The USDA’s December supply/demand report was slightly bearish on its own as ending stocks came in at 480 million bushels with an average trade guess for 470 million bushels. U.S. exports were unchanged with the trade thinking ending stocks would decline tied to higher Chinese import needs. World ending stocks were the more bearish in the soybean report as stocks increased to 82.9 million tons versus trade estimates at 81.4 million tons. S. American crops were unchanged. Soybean futures will resume focus on S. American growing conditions and have so far held a solid trend higher even after yesterday’s set back.

CORN:
The USDA report was slightly bearish to trade expectations as world carry out numbers increased more than 4 million tons to 222.25 million tons vs a trade guess of 219.55 million tons. Brazil corn production was increased to 86.5 million tons vs a pre-report guess of 84.7 million tons and USDA's 83.5 million ton November estimate . No change to Argentina corn while Chinese corn was increased higher by 3.55 million tons to 219.5 million tons.

WHEAT:
The USDA report was bearish to pre-report trade expectations as world carry out numbers increased above the average trade guess to 252.14 million tons. World production increased 6.5 million tons paving the way for another record in world wheat ending stocks as Australia and FSU numbers increased more than expected.

2016-17 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Dec
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Nov
2016-17
 Corn
2.403
2.413
2.364-2.584
2.403
 Soybeans
0.480 
0.470
0.428-0.500
0.480
 Wheat
1.143 
1.139
1.030-1.187
1.143

2016-17 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Dec
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Nov
2016-17
 Corn
222.25 
219.24
217.10-224.80
218.19
 Soybeans
 82.85
81.31
78.10-83.00
81.53
 Wheat
252.14
250.33
249.00-252.60
249.23
  
2016-17 USDA South American Production (million tons)
 
USDA Dec
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Nov
2016-17
 ARG Corn
36.5
36.4
35.0-37.0
36.5
 ARG Soy
57.0
56.6
54.0-57.0
57.0
 BRZ Corn
86.5
84.7
83.5-91.1
83.5
 BRZ Soy
102.0
102.2
101.7-103.0
102.0

Source: USDA, Reuters, Bloomberg

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.