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12

October USDA Supply & Demand

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Corn data was all very close to expectations with the trend in yield declining as the trade expected. Surprising to see Illinois above 2014 at 202 bu/acre state average. Harvested acreage increase modestly at 200,000 which will likely increase again although not as bearish as expected. Corn exports were increased by a decent 50 million bushels.

US soybean data was also very close to expectations with higher yields by almost 1 bu/acre, no change in harvested acres. Demand increased for exports by 40 million bushels as expected although on the high end of our expectations.

Wheat data in today's report was again close to trade expectations. Spring wheat prices are pushing harder on the 200 day long term average, something we see as a technical bullish signal and an opportunity to scale up sales during our existing 11 day Sell Signal.

 

2016-17 USDA U.S. Yield (bu/acre)
 
USDA Oct
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Sep
2016-17
Corn
173.4
173.5
169.5-175.2
174.4
Soybeans
51.4
51.5
50.1-52.6
50.6
Wheat
52.6
 
 
52.6

 

2016-17 USDA U.S. Harvest Acres (million acres)
 
USDA Oct
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Sep
2016-17
Corn
86.836
86.750
86.3-87.3
86.55
Soybeans
83.047
83.115
82.5-83.4
83.04
Wheat
43.9
 
 
44.1

 

2016-17 USDA U.S. Production (bln bu)
 
USDA Oct
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Sep
2016-17
Corn
15.057
15.060
14.713-15.215
15.093
Soybeans
4.269
4.286
4.147-4.366
4.201
Wheat
2.310
 
 
2.321

 

2016-17 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Oct
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Sep
2016-17
Corn
2.320
2.359
2.181-2.662
2.384
Soybeans
0.395
0.413
0.325-0.517
0.365
Wheat
1.138
1.153
1.050-1.400
1.100

 

2016-17 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Oct
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Sep
2016-17
Corn
216.81
218.32
208.00-225.30
219.46
Soybeans
77.36
73.28
71.15-74.90
72.17
Wheat
248.37
249.72
246.00-252.70
249.07
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.