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September Quarterly Grain Stocks & Wheat Production

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Today's USDA stocks report offered a neutral result for the beans and slightly bullish response in corn. Wheat stocks can be taken as bearish upon prices overall but we do see upside potential in Minneapolis wheat if wet weather continues to hinder quality.

Post report corn futures remain higher at 1pm eastern as speculators cover short positions give the friendly report and ongoing good but not stellar yield reports seen in our Yield Watch.

Soybean stocks were pegged at 197 million bushels vs a trade guess of 200 million bushels and a range of 180-256 million bushels. Focus will revert back to massive field results we are seeing on a daily basis with a fill harvest not quite up to speed.

Corn stocks as of September 1st were reported at 1.738 million bushels vs a trade guess of 1.754 billion bushels. Traders can look back over old crop demand and assume no changes will hang over beginning stock numbers in the October report.

Wheat stocks as of September 1st were reported at 2.527 vs a trade guess average of 2.438 billion bushels. All wheat production was slightly below the trade guess at 2.310 Billion bushels as SRW and Spring was reported 25 million bushels and 34 million bushels below expectations respectively.



U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks (bln bu)
 
USDA
Sep 2016
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA
Sep 2015
Corn
1.738
1.754
1.665-1.862
1.731
Soybeans
0.197
0.200
0.158-0.256
0.191
Wheat
2.527
2.438
2.175-2.650
2.097

 

2016-17 Wheat Production (bln bu)
 
USDA Sep
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2016-17
All Wheat
2.310
2.323
2.299-2.350
2.321
Winter
1.672
1.662
1.629-1.714
1.657
HRW
1.082
1.050
1.027-1.080
1.048
SRW
0.345
0.370
0.353-0.380
0.372
White
0.245
0.241
0.223-0.281
0.237
Spring
0.534
0.568
0.525-0.590
0.571
Durum
0.104
0.093
0.090-0.095
0.092

 

Source: USDA, Bloomberg

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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.