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12

September USDA Supply & Demand

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Today the USDA confirmed their forecast for record U.S. yields, record U.S. crop production and record demand. Prices for all crops fell following the USDA reports.

Click here for the USDA Crop Production briefing with a breakdown of state yield changes and ear weights.

The U.S. September 1st soybean yield was estimated at 50.6 bushels per acre this morning compared to 48.9 last month and topping last year’s record of 48.0 bushels per acre. Bean acreage was left unchanged from last month boosting U.S. production to 4.201 billion bushels, also a new record.

Ending stocks for the old crop bean year were cut from 255 million bushels to 195 million due to increased exports. New crop (2016-17) ending stocks were increased from 330 million to 365 million due to the bigger production estimate minus the smaller carry in from the old crop.

Average annual farm gate soybean prices are expected to range from $8.30 to $9.80, down 5 cents from last month’s range.

The U.S. corn yield at 174.4 was smaller than last month’s estimate of 175.1, but not as small as the trade expected. Acreage was left unchanged giving the U.S. a corn production of 15.093 billion bushels, down 60 million from last month.

Ending stocks for the old corn crop year were increased by a small 10 million bushels. The new crop year ending stocks fell 15 million now totaling 2.384 billion bushels.

Average annual farm gate corn prices are expected to range from $2.90 to $3.50, up 5 cents from last month’s range.

U.S. wheat yields, crop size and ending stocks were all left unchanged in today’s reports. Beginning stocks for this new crop year were 981 million bushels and are expected to be 1.100 billion at the end of the crop year next June 31.

Average annual farm gate wheat prices are expected to range from $3.30 to $3.90 down 5 to 15 cents from last month’s estimate.

Old Crop 2015/16


2015-16 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Sep
2015-16
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2015-16
Corn
1.716
1.711
1.680-1.775
1.706
Soybeans
0.195
0.232
0.200-0.275
0.255
Wheat
0.981
 
 
0.981

 

2015-16 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Sep
2015-16
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2015-16
Corn
209.25
208.75
206.90-210.50
209.34
Soybeans
 72.90
72.27
70.70-73.12
73.00
Wheat
 240.89
241.70
240.97-242.00
241.88

 

New Crop 2016/17


2016-17 USDA U.S. Yield (bu/acre)
 
USDA Sep
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2016-17
Corn
 174.4
173.4
171.0-175.6
175.1
Soybeans
 50.6
49.2
48.1-50.1
48.9
Wheat
 52.6
 
 
52.6

 

2016-17 USDA U.S. Production (bln bu)
 
USDA Sep
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2016-17
Corn
 15.093 
15.027
14.757-15.300
15.153
Soybeans
 4.201
4.089
4.019-4.162
4.060
Wheat
 2.321
 
 
2.321

 

2016-17 USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu)
 
USDA Sep
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2016-17
Corn
2.384
2.329
2.055-2.690
2.409
Soybeans
0.365
0.330
0.245-0.440
0.330
Wheat
1.100
1.103
1.000-1.200
1.100

 

 2016-17 USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons)
 
USDA Sep
2016-17
Average Trade Est.
Range of
Trade Est.
USDA Aug
2016-17
Corn
 219.49
219.35
211.50-228.65
220.81
Soybeans
 72.17
70.37
65.13-72.50
71.24
Wheat
 249.07
251.34
246.30-255.00
252.82

 

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, Reuters
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These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance and testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.