10 June June USDA Supply & Demand June 10, 2022 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 USDA reports mostly unchanged from last month Small adjustments in U.S. beginning stocks numbers (-30 million bushels for beans; +45 million bushels for corn) were the biggest changes seen on USDA reports Friday. U.S. corn and soybean acreage and yield estimates were left unchanged from last month. Usage changes were insignificant. U.S. wheat yield was increased 0.3 bpa to 46.9 bpa, which increased production by 8 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks increased by the same 8 million bushels. Global wheat stocks were reduced less than a million tons, while bean stocks were increased nearly a million tons, and corn stocks increased 5 million tons from last months report. Although the corn numbers were larger than traders expected, corn prices didn’t take long to recover losses and move higher on the day. The USDA left Ukraine’s 2022-23 supply demand table for wheat unchanged from last month. They increased Ukraine’s 2022-23 corn production by 5.5 million metric tons and left exports unchanged at 9 million tons (23 million last year). The USDA made small increases to their South American soybean production estimates but left their corn production estimates unchanged. Traders did not get any significant number change in the fundamentals. Weather forecasts are signaling the potential for hot dry conditions over the next two weeks, which is much more important to traders than Friday’s USDA report. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters Related Posts June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Corn supplies tightened, beans did not The USDA gave the most positive numbers to the corn market in the WASDE report released Thursday. The old crop corn left in the bin is expected to be 75 million bushels less due to exports and another 75 million bushels smaller due to ethanol. The 150 million bushel cut in the old crop stocks estimate cut the beginning stocks for the new year. The USDA did not change corn acreage or yield estimates for the crop growing in the field. There were no changes in the new crop corn demand estimates. Corn ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year are expected to total 1.357 billion bushels. South American corn production was reduced 3.5 million tons to 98.5 million tons, one million tons more than the average trade estimate. Brazilian soybean production is increased 1 million tons from last month. The trade did not expect that number to change. No changes were made to Argentine production estimates. World corn carryout fell by 2.9 million tons, nearly ... June 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Ho Hum USDA numbers keep weather as the main market focus. Sunday night’s opening will be a reflection of next week’s weather forecast. All of the fundamentals given to us by the USDA today will fade by comparison. So far, prices haven’t changed much since the reports were released. Corn The 2023-24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022-23 that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels. With no supply or use changes for 2023-24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. The USDA cut their Argentine corn production estimate 2 million tons and raised their Brazilian estimate 2 million tons, canceling out the change in South America this month. Soybeans This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023-24 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports ... January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Old crop wheat and new crop corn stocks were both bigger than expected. Following the USDA reports today, wheat prices immediately slid lower. The corn market traded lower for a little bit but quickly began to recover. The bean market immediately recovered some small losses following the report. As you can see from the following table, wheat was the only crop that had a bigger carryout estimate for 2020-21 compared to trade estimates and last month’s estimates. The USDA old crop corn carryout estimate was slightly smaller than trade expected, while beans were right on target. For the first estimate of the 2021-22 new crop year, corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels were larger than traders expected. New crop wheat carryout was also bigger than expected with beans right where the traders thought. The USDA barely changed 2021-21 world ending stocks for corn, beans, and wheat from their April estimates. That left today’s USDA world corn number considerably larger than traders expected. Beans and wheat were close to what was ... May USDA Supply & Demand The highly anticipated May USDA supply demand estimates contained a couple of surprises. First both old and new crop U.S. wheat carryout was smaller than trade expected. Second, the first USDA 2022-23 yield estimate was pegged at 177.0 bushels per acre, which was 4.0 bpa below the adjusted trend yield estimate in the February USDA Ag Outlook Forum. See the U.S. supply demand tables below. The rest of the key U.S. numbers were not far from trade estimates. Both old and new corn carryout were larger than expected. Despite the lower than expected 2022-23 corn yield, carryout increased on a 2.5% cut to domestic use and exports. The 2022-23 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2021-22. The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks, and higher prices. The 2022-23 world carryout for corn and soybeans were larger than expected, while world wheat carryout was smaller than expected. In South America, the USDA left their April estimates for Brazilian corn and bean production unchanged while they lowered their ... Comments are closed.