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John Roach's DAILY GRAIN MARKETING PLAN

Overnight Trade

Dec Corn up 1 3/4

Nov Beans up 4 3/4

Dec Wheat dn 2 1/2

Sell Signals

The corn and bean markets’ Sell Signals slid back down into buy territory. Wrap up this 2nd increment of feed buying. We want to space out our buying because there should be at least 1 and likely 2 more times to accumulate feed inventory on weakness between now and November.

What should a farmer be doing about marketing grain right now? There is no Sell Signal in any of our grains and making sales when there is no Sell Signal is usually a mistake. We will likely get another Sell Signal before harvest, but I really wouldn’t plan on selling much on it.. For years, sales made during August through November have been made at the season’s lowest priced months.

I would rather get storage lined up for all the bushels you haven’t sold and plan on making sales during March, April, May, and June on Sell Signals. March through June sales on Sell Signals have a record of being made at the highest prices of the year. We expect the spring of 2009 to be just as exciting as the spring of 2008 at least until we can be assured an adequate supply of new crop production.

Market

Asia-Pacific stocks today closed higher except for China and Hong Kong where traders were concerned by the latest producer price report showing a bigger than expected 10% inflation rate and negative economic outlook in a Goldman Sachs’ report: Japan +1.99%, Hong Kong -0.12%, China -5.20%, Taiwan +1.62%, Australia +0.80%, Singapore +0.64%, South Korea +0.83%, Bombay +2.22%. The European DJ Stoxx 50 is up +0.90% this morning.

Traders will spend today trying to figure out what the Russian invasion of Georgia means to grain markets and getting ready for tomorrow morning’s very important USDA estimates. I expect a rather quiet trade because of the uncertainty these two issues represent. Meanwhile the U.S. Dollar has maintained its surprising strength as Europe looks increasingly vulnerable economically, politically, and militarily.

The dollar has been beat on by everybody for the past 6 years yet was unable to make further downside progress in the past 6 months. The Russian attack on Georgia was the catalyst that has started a new uptrend for the Dollar and lots of people have to get turned around. I think the Dollar could have a big up move in the next 12 months.

Isn’t it funny that when prices are going up the news just keeps stimulating prices higher. Then when prices turn down from lofty heights, the bad news just keeps coming. The USDA reports will be the next round of news and nobody knows if they will be bullish or bearish; but we will know that tomorrow morning.

These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. This commentary is written as a daily marketing tool to help farmers sell the grain they raise. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.